geo-economics, oil prices, Iran war, Africa economy, central banks, ZiG, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, inflation
Oil at $114, fertiliser up 30%, and central banks across Africa rethinking rate cuts. What treasuries and CEOs need to know this morning.
Africa, Power & Influence, Policy Intelligence, Business Leaders, Economics, Policymakers, Rankings, PowerList Africa
Everyone has an opinion about Zimbabwe's economy. Almost nobody examines the actual fiscal data. We did. The numbers are surprising — and the men behind them is Prof.Mhtuli Ncube and George Guvamatanga
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Oil at $100 is the headline. Fertiliser at 45 percent above January prices is the crisis nobody is covering. One-third of the world's seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Africa imports over 90 percent of what it uses. The maths is brutal.
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Ghana has declined to renew Gold Fields' lease on the Damang mine and is fielding $1 billion in local bids to take it over. If it works, every mining contract expiry on the continent becomes a negotiation. If it fails, resource nationalism gets a new cautionary tale.
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In 2009, BP and Shell sold their joint Zimbabwean operation. In 2010, Caltex followed. By 2015, three of the four largest international oil companies had abandoned Zimbabwe's downstream fuel market, surrendering over 130 service stations and the logistical backbone that had fuelled the country's transport, agriculture,
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Zambia completed its IMF programme in January. On 13 August, 9 million voters decide if painful reforms survive the ballot box. Four scenarios for banks, miners, and funds with Southern Africa exposure.
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POWERLIST.AFRICA, POWERLIST 2026
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In January 2026, Zimbabwe recorded an annual inflation rate of 4.1 percent. By February, it dropped to 3.8 percent. For a country that once printed hundred-trillion-dollar banknotes, this is not just a statistic. It is a statement.
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Treasury Circular No. 4 of 2026 makes ZiG the sole payment currency for all government suppliers. With inflation at 3.8%, reserves at US$1.2bn, and an IMF SMP in place, Zimbabwe is attempting something it has never tried: de-dollarizing from strength rather than desperation.
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Whatever you are worth today, lithium is about to multiply the economy you are worth it in.
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Every successful currency has a moment where its creators must decide whether to trust it. Not trust it the way a central banker trusts it, with reserve ratios and monetary policy statements. Trust it the way a parent trusts a child to walk without holding their hand.
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There is a peculiar cruelty in receiving a gift and a punishment from the same event. That is exactly what the Iran-Strait of Hormuz war is doing to Zimbabwe right now.